Nepal Political Crisis 2025

Nepal Political Crisis 2025

Syllabus Areas:

GS II - International Relations (India and its Neighbours)

Nepal is witnessing a phase of intense social and political unrest, triggered not by a single event but by a cumulative build-up of grievances among its people, especially the youth. Nepal has had 14 Governments since 2008, not one of which has completed a full 5-year term.

Immediate Trigger: The Schoolgirl Incident

• On Sept 6, around 7:15 am, an official jeep carrying Koshi Province minister Ram Bahadur Magar hit 11-year-old Usha Magar Sunuwar outside her school in Lalitpur.
• CCTV footage showed the vehicle flinging her to the roadside and then driving away.
• The child survived with injuries, but the government convoy abandoning her sparked outrage across Nepal.
• Former PM P. Sharma Oli called it a “normal accident” and only offered to cover her medical expenses.
• This “callous and entitled” remark deepened anger, reinforcing public perceptions of political arrogance and impunity.

Public Outrage and Mobilisation

• Outrage was immediate in Kathmandu’s colleges, tea stalls, and streets.
• Young people saw the incident as proof that citizens’ lives don’t matter to politicians.
• The incident became a symbolic spark, igniting pent-up frustration about corruption, nepotism, unemployment, and lack of dignity.

Structural Grievances Behind the Protests

• Youth Unemployment:
  • Among the highest in South Asia.
  • In 2024, the jobless rate for ages 15–24 was 20.8% (World Bank data).
  • Many migrate to the Gulf and Malaysia; those who stay face inflation, weak infrastructure, and political neglect.
• Dependence on Remittances:
  • Over 33% of Nepal’s GDP (33.1%) comes from remittances.
  • Emigration is seen as “soft exile” – either leave the country or live without dignity.
• Corruption & Nepotism:
  • Successive governments plagued by corruption scandals.
  • Ministries and embassies filled with political families’ children and relatives.
  • Ordinary citizens feel shut out of opportunities, reinforcing elite capture.
• Rise of “Nepo Kids”:
  • Children of politicians flaunting lavish lifestyles online (Instagram/TikTok).
  • Seen as an insult to struggling youth, especially amid unemployment.

The Social Media Ban – A Catalyst

• Government imposed a ban on 26 social media platforms just hours before the accident.
• The ban, instead of silencing dissent, added fuel to the protests.
• Social media had been the space where frustration about corruption, nepotism, and “nepo kids” was already brewing.

Protest Dynamics

• Protest slogans like “Oli chor, desh chhod” (Oli thief, leave the country) gained traction.
• Anger framed as betrayal of democracy – politicians ruling like a “monarchy of ministers.”
• Protesters emphasized they were educated, aware, and no longer willing to wait for change.

Political Reactions

• Opposition & Academics:
  • Analysts described the protests as “inevitable” due to decades of neglect.
  • Scholars argued the incident exposed apathy and broken trust between people and politicians.
• Ruling Class Response:
  • Nepali Congress leader NP Saud admitted corruption/nepotism were real but insisted on resolving them through due process and the constitution.
  • Protesters, however, saw this as too little, too slow, demanding immediate accountability and justice.

Key Points on 2015 Earthquake & Gen Z Movement in Nepal

• The 2015 Nepal earthquake became a turning point for the country’s youth and reshaped Sudan Gurung, once part of Kathmandu’s nightlife scene.
• Witnessing a child die in his arms during the quake pushed Gurung to form Hami Nepal (We are Nepal), starting with small relief like rice sacks.
• His first online plea gathered nearly 200 volunteers, who delivered food, pitched tents, and ferried the injured.
• Over the years, Hami Nepal grew into a structured NGO, formally registered in 2020, with 1,600+ members.
• Unlike many grassroots groups, it became known for discipline, logistics, and trust-building, earning praise from mentors like eye surgeon Sanduk Ruit.
• By 2024, as anger against corruption, nepotism, unemployment, and the social media ban grew, Hami Nepal became the platform for Gen Z protests.
• Gurung called students to march in school uniforms with textbooks in hand, symbolising purity of cause.
• Protesters also raised the “Straw Hat Jolly Roger” flag (from anime One Piece), a cultural code of rebellion against authority.
• Gurung, at 38, straddles generations: old enough to remember monarchy and insurgency, yet young enough to embody Gen Z impatience.
• Today, Hami Nepal stands as the architecture of Gen Z politics, symbolising unity, trust, and resistance beyond party lines.

Events in India’s Neighbourhood

• I. Afghanistan (Aug 2021)
  • Event: US withdrawal → Taliban swiftly recaptured power on Aug 15, 2021.
  • Outcome: Ashraf Ghani fled; Afghan army collapsed.
  • Implication: Rise of an Islamist regime on India’s doorstep, with implications for security, terrorism, and regional stability.
• II. Sri Lanka (July 2022)
  • Event: Worst economic crisis in decades (fuel, food, medicine shortages).
  • Trigger: Public anger at Rajapaksa family’s misgovernance and debt-driven projects.
  • Outcome: Massive protests → Presidential palace stormed → Rajapaksas fled.
  • Implication: Collapse of political order due to corruption and financial mismanagement.
• III. Bangladesh (Aug 2024)
  • Event: Student protests against quota system in govt jobs grew into an anti-regime movement.
  • Trigger: Accusations of corruption, authoritarianism, and erosion of democracy under Sheikh Hasina.
  • Outcome: Violent protests; PM Hasina fled after 15 years in power; regime shaken.
  • Implication: Democratic deficit, youth unemployment, and misgovernance destabilised a relatively stable state.
• IV. Nepal (Sept 2024)
  • Event: Govt ban on 26 social media platforms triggered anger.
  • Trigger: Youth-led anti-corruption protests escalated after minister’s vehicle hit a schoolgirl and PM Oli dismissed it as a “normal accident.”
  • Outcome: Violent protests, 19 deaths, PM Oli resigned, his house torched by protesters.
  • Implication: Fragile democratic institutions and growing frustration with corruption, nepotism, and elitism.

Patterns Across Neighbourhood

• Youth Discontent: Unemployment, lack of dignity, and shrinking opportunities are central.
• Corruption & Nepotism: Common denominator in Afghanistan (elite disconnect), Sri Lanka (family rule), Bangladesh (dynastic politics), and Nepal (elite capture).
• Economic Mismanagement: Sri Lanka’s debt crisis, Bangladesh’s unemployment + inflation, Nepal’s dependence on remittances, Afghanistan’s economic collapse.
• Weak Institutions: Power personalised in leaders/families, democracy fragile.
• Protest as Catalyst: Social media + street mobilisations converting grievances into violent upheavals.

Way Forward to India:

• Adopt a People-Centric Neighbourhood Policy
  • Go beyond engaging only with ruling elites.
  • Expand outreach through scholarships, cultural exchanges, health diplomacy, education, and digital connectivity.
  • This builds long-term goodwill and cushions India against regime changes.
• Strengthen Regional Economic Integration
  • Push for regional supply chains, cross-border trade, and energy connectivity through SAARC/BIMSTEC.
  • Offer crisis loans and concessional aid with transparency, avoiding China-style debt traps.
  • Support job-creation projects in neighbouring countries to ease youth unrest.
• Create a Neighbourhood Crisis-Response Mechanism
  • Establish a South Asian Stability Fund for humanitarian relief during economic or political breakdowns.
  • Coordinate disaster management, food/fuel aid, and medical support quickly to stabilise unrest.
• Balance China’s Influence with Sustainable Alternatives
  • Invest in infrastructure, digital projects, and energy grids across the neighbourhood.
  • Offer low-interest, non-exploitative financing unlike Chinese debt diplomacy.
  • Highlight India’s shared history and cultural proximity to build trust.
• Support Democratic Institutions, Not Just Regimes
  • Encourage free press, independent judiciary, transparent elections in neighboring states.
  • Avoid perception of backing authoritarian or corrupt regimes.
  • Engage with civil society, opposition parties, and youth groups to strengthen India’s credibility.
• Border & Security Management
  • Enhance border surveillance to manage refugee influx, radicalization, and cross-border terrorism.
  • Strengthen cooperation in counter-terrorism and intelligence sharing.
  • Use technology and joint patrols to prevent spillover of unrest.
• Soft Power as Strategic Power
  • Leverage India’s strengths in Bollywood, yoga, Ayurveda, digital public infrastructure (UPI, Aadhaar model).
  • Promote India as a model of inclusive democracy in contrast to collapsing governance around.

The crises in Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal are not isolated—they reflect a larger trend of governance failure, corruption, and disenfranchised youth in South Asia. For India, the message is clear: neighborhood first cannot just be rhetoric. A proactive, people-centric, stability-driven Neighborhood First 2.0 is the only way forward.